The conflict in the Middle East has set wholesale gas and oil prices spiralling, putting energy prices for consumers and for business, front and centre. We talk to Darren Woodcock, general manager of Deceuninck, who explains what fabricators and installers be doing.

Wholesale gas prices have recently jumped by as much as 50% amid fears of disruption to global supply after liquefied natural gas production was halted at facilities in Qatar following Iranian drone attacks.

The potential knock-on impact on global energy markets has raised concerns that household energy costs could rise again later this year, only three years after average dual energy bills hit £3,549 in October 2022.

For the window and door industry, rising energy prices creates a heady mix of challenge and opportunity.

Darren Woodcock, general manager of Deceuninck explained:

“In common with all manufacturing businesses, the window industry is energy intensive, glass particularly, but also aluminium and PVC-U.

“Rising energy costs increase manufacturing costs. This is at a time when the industry is already facing increased employment costs and overhead. It cranks up the pressure that little bit further and fabricators and the industry at large are going to feel it.

“The flip side of that is that homeowners are also facing financial pressures and may be more receptive to an energy efficiency sell.

“The challenge is that we need to be effective in doing that at a time when consumers are also looking down the barrel of rising inflation and increased costs.

“It’s not an easy landscape to navigate but there are as always opportunities, but you need the right message and the right product.”

Volatility in the UK energy market

The UK remains heavily reliant on gas compared with many European countries, producing around 45% the gas it consumes and importing the remainder. Even relatively small disruptions in global supply have the potential to influence prices.

Investment firm Stifel has warned that European wholesale gas prices could even triple if a major shipping route for example, the Strait of Hormuz, is closed for an extended period.

For households, the immediate impact of wholesale price movements is moderated by Ofgem’s energy price cap, which limits what suppliers can charge customers on standard variable tariffs.

The current cap for the period from April to June equates to an annual energy bill of £1,641 for the average dual-fuel household – a long way off October 2023’s peak.

However, wholesale price movements take time to feed through into the cap. If higher wholesale costs persist, the cap could rise to as much as £2,500 a year for the average household later in the year, according to industry estimates.

“That kind of volatility creates uncertainty for homeowners,” Darren continues: “People remember how quickly energy costs increased in recent years. When prices begin to move again, it tends to focus minds on the long-term efficiency of their homes.”

Retail finance assumes increased importance when consumer confidence is weaker

The sting in the tail, however, is that the same drivers which encourage homeowners to place more importance on energy efficiency, may also prevent them from spending.

The Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply has warned that the cost of everyday consumer goods could also rise significantly during 2026 due to higher energy and transport costs.

Global shipping disruption is already creating delays and increasing logistics costs across international supply chains. Around 750 ships were recently reported to be backed up in the Strait of Hormuz, illustrating how quickly geopolitical events can ripple through global trade routes.

This has an inevitable knock-on to consumer confidence.
Persimmon said the biggest short-term variable is customer sentiment, and Barclays’ confidence index falling 2 percentage points to 23% after the conflict began, with around four-fifths of Britons worried the war would push up inflation.

People were especially concerned about fuel costs, energy bills and food prices, which is exactly the mix that tends to make buyers postpone moving.

“Rising prices across the wider economy inevitably affect consumer confidence,” Darren continues.
“If people are paying more for energy, transport and everyday goods, it can make them think twice about larger purchases.

“That makes finance more important. The Middle East conflict, we hope, will be short-lived.

“If we can help people mitigated the impact of rising fuel bills now, while supporting them with a mechanism to fund it, it removes a barrier to purchase.”

What will the conflict to do to recovery in the housing market?

This is important given that analysts suggest that the conflict and expected changes in interest rates and mortgage costs, combined with lower levels of consumer confidence, are likely to slow recovery in the housing market.

Swap rates, which influence the rates lenders offer to borrowers, have already begun to edge upwards following the recent geopolitical developments. They have increased by around 0.2 percentage points since the conflict began.

The lowest two-year fixed rate currently available for remortgaging is around 3.55%, while five-year deals are available from roughly 3.75%, depending on loan-to-value ratios. But if swap rates continue to rise, lenders may respond by increasing mortgage rates again.

For the housing market, even small changes in mortgage costs can have an impact on buyer behaviour.

“Mortgage rates are a key driver of activity in the housing market,” Darren says.

“If borrowing becomes more expensive, it can slow down transactions or encourage homeowners to delay moving.

“We know that there is a direct correlation between activity in the housing market and demand for replacement products. That may push back the recovery a few months t the very least.”

And the positives are?

While those factors may temper activity in parts of the market, they also strengthen the case for investment in energy efficiency.

Periods of high energy costs have historically encouraged homeowners to look more closely at how their homes perform.

Research commissioned by Deceuninck previously found that concern about energy bills was a major driver of investment in home efficiency measures, with many homeowners saying that higher energy costs made them more likely to invest in improvements that reduce heating bills.

Windows and doors ranked among the most popular upgrades.

“Energy efficient windows and doors are one of the most tangible energy efficiency improvements homeowners can make,” Darren explains.

“They improve the appearance of a property but they also have a direct impact on comfort and heat retention – unlike some other improvements, their impact is immediately visible.

“If a homeowner is experiencing draughts or heat loss, windows and doors are often the first thing they notice. That makes them a very powerful starting point when discussing energy efficiency.”

Supporting the sales conversation

For installers, turning that awareness into sales means helping homeowners understand the real-world impact of upgrading older windows and doors.

Deceuninck supports that conversation through its Energy Calculator, a digital tool which demonstrates how replacing older windows can reduce household energy consumption and heating costs.

Integrated into installer websites or used during consultations, it allows homeowners to visualise potential savings over time.

“Energy efficiency is a strong sales message, but homeowners want to see the numbers,” Darren says.

“The Deceuninck Energy Calculator allows installers to demonstrate very clearly how upgrading windows and doors can lower energy consumption and reduce heating bills.”

Depending on the starting point, those savings can be substantial. Previous modelling shows that replacing older windows with modern high-performance systems can significantly reduce household energy use and carbon emissions over time.

“Being able to demonstrate that visually is incredibly powerful,” Darren adds. “It helps homeowners understand the long-term value of investing in energy efficiency.”

A lasting shift

While energy prices may fluctuate, the broader shift in homeowner attitudes towards energy efficiency is likely to remain.

The experience of rising energy costs over recent years has left many households more conscious of how their homes perform.

“There has definitely been a lasting change in the way homeowners think about energy,” Darren says.

“People are far more aware of how energy efficient their homes are, and they are much more receptive to improvements that reduce heating costs.”

For installers, that creates a clear opportunity.

“The key is making sure the message is communicated clearly. When energy prices rise, homeowners naturally start thinking about how to reduce their bills.

“If installers can demonstrate how new windows and doors contribute to that, then the industry is very well positioned to be part of the solution”, Darren concludes.