By Neil Cooper-Smith, senior analyst, Business Pilot.

Last month’s Barometer highlighted a market increasingly driven by efficiency rather than demand growth, with improving conversion rates helping installers maintain performance despite fluctuating enquiry volumes.

May’s figures suggest that trend is continuing, but with a notable shift in emphasis. While leads and sales softened further, average order values rose sharply, indicating that homeowners who are choosing to proceed are committing to larger projects.

Conversion rates remained remarkably resilient, slipping only marginally from 40.0% in April to 39.9% in May. While technically a decline, the difference is negligible and means conversion performance has now remained at or around 40% for three consecutive months. In the context of falling lead volumes, this stability is particularly significant, suggesting that installers continue to convert opportunities effectively despite a more selective market.

Lead activity softened further in May, falling from 109.1 in April to 99.8. This marks the first time average leads have dipped below the 100 mark since the start of the year and reflects a gradual cooling in enquiry volumes following March’s peak.

However, while demand has moderated, the data does not suggest a sharp contraction. Rather, it points towards a market where consumers are taking longer to commit and being more deliberate about when they engage.

Sales volumes followed a similar pattern. Average sales declined from 50.6 in April to 48.2 in May, extending the gradual easing seen since March. Importantly, the reduction in sales remains proportionally smaller than the decline in leads, helping to explain why conversion rates have held firm.

This indicates that businesses are continuing to extract value from the enquiries they receive, even as overall activity levels soften.

What stands out most in May’s figures is the significant increase in average order values. After rising modestly from £3,876 in March to £3,954 in April, average order values climbed sharply to £4,473 in May, representing an increase of more than 13% month-on-month. This takes values back towards February’s peak and suggests that consumers who are proceeding with projects are doing so at a higher level of spend.
In practical terms, this points to a market that may be becoming increasingly polarised. While some households continue to delay discretionary expenditure, others remain willing to invest in larger home improvement projects, particularly where there is a clear benefit in terms of energy efficiency, comfort or property value.

Lead times also moved upwards in May, increasing from 21.8 days in April to 24.0 days. While still below March’s 26.4 days, this partial rebound may indicate that the reduction in lead times seen last month was not solely the result of increased operational efficiency but also reflected temporary fluctuations in workload and order scheduling.

Taken together, May’s data reinforces a trend that has been emerging throughout 2026: market performance is being shaped less by the volume of opportunities available and more by the quality and value of those opportunities.

While overall activity has softened, installers are continuing to maintain healthy conversion rates and secure higher-value projects.

This remains closely linked to the wider economic backdrop. Inflation has eased significantly compared to the highs seen in recent years, but household budgets continue to face pressure from elevated living costs and ongoing global uncertainty. Consumer confidence has improved gradually, yet remains fragile, creating a market where spending decisions are increasingly considered and selective.

For the home improvement sector, this creates both challenges and opportunities. Businesses can no longer rely solely on growing enquiry volumes to drive performance. Instead, success increasingly depends on understanding customer intent, maintaining strong sales processes and maximising the value of every opportunity that enters the pipeline.

This is where tools like Business Pilot become particularly valuable. By providing visibility across leads, conversions, order values and operational performance, installers can make more informed decisions, respond quickly to changing market conditions and focus effort where it delivers the greatest return.

As we move into the summer months, May’s data suggests that while demand may be moderating, the customers who remain active are demonstrating strong purchasing intent. For businesses that remain data-led and responsive, that presents a solid platform for continued growth.