With January behind us, the question many in our industry are asking is a familiar one: what is the outlook for the rest of the year?
In this week’s newsletter, we can offer some insight into what to expect from the months ahead thanks to the latest data from Business Pilot and the Barclays Business Prosperity Index report.
On the retail side, the most recent Business Pilot Barometer paints a picture of cautious confidence. January has delivered the seasonal rebound we’d expect, with lead volumes almost doubling on December and sales activity climbing sharply too. Year-on-year comparisons show the market has softened slightly, but not dramatically, and crucially, those homeowners who are moving forward are spending more.
Average order values rose again in January, reinforcing the idea that while consumers remain hesitant, they are still willing to commit to larger, more considered projects when confidence allows.
This suggests that when it comes to replacement windows and doors, demand is not necessarily the problem – it’s more of a confidence and conversion challenge. According to Business Pilot, lower conversion rates at the start of the year reflect sales cycles ‘re-setting’ rather than a lack of intent. Installers who can identify genuine buying signals, manage leads effectively and guide customers through that uncertainty will be best placed to make the most of market conditions.
As for consumer confidence, it was only a few weeks ago that I suggested a potential interest rate rise as early as spring could be just the thing to get homeowner’s spending.
Since then, stubbornly high inflation has reminded us all just how difficult accurate economic forecasting can be, with expectations now being revised yet again. That uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer confidence, even as enquiry levels remain encouraging.
In contrast, the outlook from the new-build sector is more upbeat. The latest Barclays Business Prosperity Index shows four in five housebuilding businesses remain confident about the year ahead, with clear signs of strengthening activity at the very start of the development pipeline.
Increased cashflows for architects and quantity surveyors, rising investment intentions and a willingness among larger firms to deploy capital all point towards a sector quietly positioning itself for growth.
What’s particularly interesting is the generational split. Gen Z buyers are driving new-build demand, attracted by energy efficiency, location and favourable mortgage products.
Challenges remain for housebuilders – cost pressures, regulation (including meeting the requirements of the Future Homes Standard) and skills shortages chief among them – but the intent to build, invest and innovate is clearly there.
Taken together, these two reports underline an important point. Retail and new build are moving at different speeds, but both show underlying resilience. Confidence may be fragile, forecasts may keep shifting, but opportunity still exists for businesses that stay agile, informed and proactive.
Mixed outlook for retail, cautious optimism for new build
With January behind us, the question many in our industry are asking is a familiar one: what is the outlook for the rest of the year?
In this week’s newsletter, we can offer some insight into what to expect from the months ahead thanks to the latest data from Business Pilot and the Barclays Business Prosperity Index report.
On the retail side, the most recent Business Pilot Barometer paints a picture of cautious confidence. January has delivered the seasonal rebound we’d expect, with lead volumes almost doubling on December and sales activity climbing sharply too. Year-on-year comparisons show the market has softened slightly, but not dramatically, and crucially, those homeowners who are moving forward are spending more.
Average order values rose again in January, reinforcing the idea that while consumers remain hesitant, they are still willing to commit to larger, more considered projects when confidence allows.
This suggests that when it comes to replacement windows and doors, demand is not necessarily the problem – it’s more of a confidence and conversion challenge. According to Business Pilot, lower conversion rates at the start of the year reflect sales cycles ‘re-setting’ rather than a lack of intent. Installers who can identify genuine buying signals, manage leads effectively and guide customers through that uncertainty will be best placed to make the most of market conditions.
As for consumer confidence, it was only a few weeks ago that I suggested a potential interest rate rise as early as spring could be just the thing to get homeowner’s spending.
Since then, stubbornly high inflation has reminded us all just how difficult accurate economic forecasting can be, with expectations now being revised yet again. That uncertainty continues to weigh on consumer confidence, even as enquiry levels remain encouraging.
In contrast, the outlook from the new-build sector is more upbeat. The latest Barclays Business Prosperity Index shows four in five housebuilding businesses remain confident about the year ahead, with clear signs of strengthening activity at the very start of the development pipeline.
Increased cashflows for architects and quantity surveyors, rising investment intentions and a willingness among larger firms to deploy capital all point towards a sector quietly positioning itself for growth.
What’s particularly interesting is the generational split. Gen Z buyers are driving new-build demand, attracted by energy efficiency, location and favourable mortgage products.
Challenges remain for housebuilders – cost pressures, regulation (including meeting the requirements of the Future Homes Standard) and skills shortages chief among them – but the intent to build, invest and innovate is clearly there.
Taken together, these two reports underline an important point. Retail and new build are moving at different speeds, but both show underlying resilience. Confidence may be fragile, forecasts may keep shifting, but opportunity still exists for businesses that stay agile, informed and proactive.
Glass Times
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