Consumer confidence rose in September, according to the latest UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index, suggesting that households are beginning to feel more positive about their financial position.
That improvement in confidence is also reflected in a shift away from defensive saving. Earlier in the summer, GfK reported a decline in saving intentions, indicating that households were becoming more willing to dip into their accumulated rainy-day funds to make purchases they had put off during tougher economic times.
For our industry, the latest Business Pilot Barometer provides further evidence that this is translating into increased activity.
September’s figures were stronger than the same month last year across leads, sales, conversion rates and average order values, while lead times were also considerably shorter.
Average leads increased from 105.6 in September 2025 to 113.3 this September – growth of around 7%. Sales rose from 49.3 to 53.5, an increase of approximately 9%.
Importantly, this suggests that September’s improvement goes beyond the usual post-summer uplift, with both measures ahead of the same point last year.
The increase in average order value is particularly encouraging. September 2025 recorded an average of £3,736, compared with £4,344 this September – an increase of more than 16%. So, not only are more homeowners progressing with projects, but those projects appear to be carrying greater value, too.
The question, however, is whether this momentum can continue.
There are plenty of reasons to think consumer confidence could come under renewed pressure as we move towards the end of 2026. Rising inflation, higher energy and fuel costs and increasing household bills could all take their toll on consumer morale.
Diesel has recently reached an average of £2 a litre for the first time, while the typical UK household energy bill is set to rise by 4% to £1,723 a year from October 1. Forecasts suggest it could rise by a further 16% in January, potentially pushing the typical annual bill close to £2,000.
Mortgage costs are another concern. With average mortgage rates now exceeding 6%, many households will face higher monthly payments, particularly as millions come off historically cheap fixed-rate deals.
That is unlikely to help the housing market either, with house prices expected to fall by around 2% in the short term, although longer-term forecasts remain more positive.
And then there is the Autumn Budget on October 28, with tax rises widely expected. Current speculation is that these could target areas including Capital Gains, pensions and savings – potentially knocking some of the wind out of the sails of the demographic most likely to invest larger sums in premium home-improvement projects.
So, while the post-summer upturn is certainly welcome, there is a nagging feeling that it could prove relatively short-lived.
For installers and manufacturers, the current numbers provide some genuine reasons for optimism. But with a series of economic headwinds gathering as we head towards the end of the year, the industry may need to make the most of the improved consumer appetite while it lasts.
A welcome boost – but how long will it last?
Consumer confidence rose in September, according to the latest UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index, suggesting that households are beginning to feel more positive about their financial position.
That improvement in confidence is also reflected in a shift away from defensive saving. Earlier in the summer, GfK reported a decline in saving intentions, indicating that households were becoming more willing to dip into their accumulated rainy-day funds to make purchases they had put off during tougher economic times.
For our industry, the latest Business Pilot Barometer provides further evidence that this is translating into increased activity.
September’s figures were stronger than the same month last year across leads, sales, conversion rates and average order values, while lead times were also considerably shorter.
Average leads increased from 105.6 in September 2025 to 113.3 this September – growth of around 7%. Sales rose from 49.3 to 53.5, an increase of approximately 9%.
Importantly, this suggests that September’s improvement goes beyond the usual post-summer uplift, with both measures ahead of the same point last year.
The increase in average order value is particularly encouraging. September 2025 recorded an average of £3,736, compared with £4,344 this September – an increase of more than 16%. So, not only are more homeowners progressing with projects, but those projects appear to be carrying greater value, too.
The question, however, is whether this momentum can continue.
There are plenty of reasons to think consumer confidence could come under renewed pressure as we move towards the end of 2026. Rising inflation, higher energy and fuel costs and increasing household bills could all take their toll on consumer morale.
Diesel has recently reached an average of £2 a litre for the first time, while the typical UK household energy bill is set to rise by 4% to £1,723 a year from October 1. Forecasts suggest it could rise by a further 16% in January, potentially pushing the typical annual bill close to £2,000.
Mortgage costs are another concern. With average mortgage rates now exceeding 6%, many households will face higher monthly payments, particularly as millions come off historically cheap fixed-rate deals.
That is unlikely to help the housing market either, with house prices expected to fall by around 2% in the short term, although longer-term forecasts remain more positive.
And then there is the Autumn Budget on October 28, with tax rises widely expected. Current speculation is that these could target areas including Capital Gains, pensions and savings – potentially knocking some of the wind out of the sails of the demographic most likely to invest larger sums in premium home-improvement projects.
So, while the post-summer upturn is certainly welcome, there is a nagging feeling that it could prove relatively short-lived.
For installers and manufacturers, the current numbers provide some genuine reasons for optimism. But with a series of economic headwinds gathering as we head towards the end of the year, the industry may need to make the most of the improved consumer appetite while it lasts.
Luke Wood
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