At the start of this year, the conversations I was having with businesses up and down the supply chain about prospects for 2026 were all very similar.
It was going to be an ‘OK’ year, we might see a little bit of growth, we just need a period of relative stability and then we should really be on an upward trajectory for 2027.
Basically, 2026 will be fine – just as long as nothing major happens…
Well, we’re now just over a month into the Iran conflict and the shock to the system is exactly what the industry didn’t need.
Consumer confidence, which wasn’t particularly high in the run up to the war, has taken a big hit thanks to fears of higher energy prices. According to a survey from the British Retail Consortium, 64% of respondents think the UK economy will get worse over the next three months.
There is an argument that higher energy costs could actually fuel an upturn in home improvements, for example for more energy efficient windows and doors, but with borrowing now more expensive, and with thousands of mortgage deals withdrawn from the market, there is a big question mark over affordability.
Many homeowners may just choose to wait it out.
In turn, many businesses will be looking anxiously at energy costs, rising diesel prices on transport and logistics and incoming surcharges.
I’m told that for PVC supply, fabricators can expect anywhere between 7-10% from orders in April.
Even if the war ends today, how long before everything resets back to normal?
That is a hard question to answer. What will be important for the industry, once this shock wave has been processed, is to look at ways to move forward.
There may be no getting around the price increases in raw material, but how that is passed on to installers and communicated to homeowners will be key.
Those who have been quoted three months ago may be expecting a small increase anyway, and if installers take advantage of tools like online energy calculators, that can demonstrate how much money they will be saving in the long run, then it will help to persuade them to commit.
The other consideration is pent up demand. Many households will have been holding off on their new windows and doors for some time already, and in which case the argument is – why wait any longer?
If you would like to comment on any of these issues, please email me at [email protected]
In other news, last week saw the long-awaited publication of the government’s response to the Future Homes Consultation.
The key takeaway from this is that notional U-Values for new build are staying at 1.2W/m2k, rather than being pushed towards the higher performance value of 0.8, so in most cases, regular double glazing will still do.
The bigger challenge comes from how U values will be worked out. Under the Home Energy Model, every window will have to be calculated to its actual size and configuration, including all items that sit within the opening, rather than relying on a standard window configuration.
For more details, you can read an article in this week’s newsletter from Paul Booth, technical director for AluK, by clicking here.
A shock to the system
At the start of this year, the conversations I was having with businesses up and down the supply chain about prospects for 2026 were all very similar.
It was going to be an ‘OK’ year, we might see a little bit of growth, we just need a period of relative stability and then we should really be on an upward trajectory for 2027.
Basically, 2026 will be fine – just as long as nothing major happens…
Well, we’re now just over a month into the Iran conflict and the shock to the system is exactly what the industry didn’t need.
Consumer confidence, which wasn’t particularly high in the run up to the war, has taken a big hit thanks to fears of higher energy prices. According to a survey from the British Retail Consortium, 64% of respondents think the UK economy will get worse over the next three months.
There is an argument that higher energy costs could actually fuel an upturn in home improvements, for example for more energy efficient windows and doors, but with borrowing now more expensive, and with thousands of mortgage deals withdrawn from the market, there is a big question mark over affordability.
Many homeowners may just choose to wait it out.
In turn, many businesses will be looking anxiously at energy costs, rising diesel prices on transport and logistics and incoming surcharges.
I’m told that for PVC supply, fabricators can expect anywhere between 7-10% from orders in April.
Even if the war ends today, how long before everything resets back to normal?
That is a hard question to answer. What will be important for the industry, once this shock wave has been processed, is to look at ways to move forward.
There may be no getting around the price increases in raw material, but how that is passed on to installers and communicated to homeowners will be key.
Those who have been quoted three months ago may be expecting a small increase anyway, and if installers take advantage of tools like online energy calculators, that can demonstrate how much money they will be saving in the long run, then it will help to persuade them to commit.
The other consideration is pent up demand. Many households will have been holding off on their new windows and doors for some time already, and in which case the argument is – why wait any longer?
If you would like to comment on any of these issues, please email me at [email protected]
In other news, last week saw the long-awaited publication of the government’s response to the Future Homes Consultation.
The key takeaway from this is that notional U-Values for new build are staying at 1.2W/m2k, rather than being pushed towards the higher performance value of 0.8, so in most cases, regular double glazing will still do.
The bigger challenge comes from how U values will be worked out. Under the Home Energy Model, every window will have to be calculated to its actual size and configuration, including all items that sit within the opening, rather than relying on a standard window configuration.
For more details, you can read an article in this week’s newsletter from Paul Booth, technical director for AluK, by clicking here.
Luke Wood
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