There’s a familiar pattern emerging. Just as the industry starts to sense a flicker of momentum, something comes along to knock the wind out of it. This time, it’s the escalating tensions involving Iran, and the very real risk that the situation spills over into something that directly hits wallets here in the UK.

We’re already seeing the early warning signs. Sub-4% mortgage deals are vanishing at pace as lenders brace themselves for the knock-on effects of rising inflation and the potential for interest rate hikes. Only a matter of weeks ago, the narrative was cautiously optimistic. Rates easing in the spring, perhaps even a steady downward trend through 2026. That now feels, at best, premature.

And then there’s energy. Reports suggesting possible fuel rationing within months if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked are the kind of headlines that don’t just sit in the background. They can shape behaviour. Even among households with the means to spend, there’s a growing likelihood that big-ticket home improvement decisions get quietly parked until the picture becomes clearer.

That’s the real concern for the glazing sector. Not necessarily a collapse in ability to spend, but a hesitation to do so.

That said, there is a potential twist in the tale. If energy prices continue their upward march, then the argument for energy efficient windows and doors becomes less of a β€œnice to have” and more of a financial necessity.

Speaking from personal experience, the issue has become more than theoretical. Like many off-grid households, I rely on heating oil and recently found myself on the receiving end of what can only be described as sharp practice. An order I’d already paid for was cancelled, and I was invited – very generously – to reorder at nearly three times the price.

With no access to mains gas and relatively new windows already in place, my attention has turned elsewhere: solar panels, battery storage, and electric heating. Not necessarily the cheapest route upfront, but increasingly hard to ignore given the volatility elsewhere.

In the course of exploring options, I discovered that my mortgage provider, Nationwide Building Society, offers a 0% interest β€œGreen Loan” for home improvements. Solar panels? Covered. Insulation? Covered. Even A-rated double and triple glazing makes the list.

There’s a serious point here for installers. At a time when consumers are understandably cautious, access to affordable finance could be the difference between hesitation and action.