The ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran briefly restored confidence to global markets. The resumption of hostilities has reminded everyone just how fragile that confidence remains. So what should window companies expect over the months ahead, and how should they prepare?

Just a few weeks ago, it looked as though the worst might be behind us. The ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran calmed financial markets almost overnight. Oil prices eased, shipping markets settled and there was renewed optimism that the disruption affecting global supply chains might begin to unwind.

That optimism proved short-lived.

Renewed hostilities at the start of July, have reinforced a sense that even at a time when things appear to be getting better, the underlying instability remains.

Rather than expecting a steady return to normality, businesses should prepare for continued volatility as every escalation or diplomatic breakthrough feeds through into oil prices, shipping costs, inflation and business confidence.

“The ceasefire showed just how quickly confidence can return,” said Mike Parczuk, managing director of Sternfenster. “Unfortunately, the resumption of hostilities has shown the opposite is equally true,” he continues.

“We’re now operating in an environment where confidence can change almost overnight. That affects everything from the price we pay for energy, to manufacturing costs, to the decisions homeowners and developers make about investing in their properties.”

And of course its not just the middle Middle East that is creating uncertainty.

“As a country, we just need a little stability and grown-up political leadership,” Mike continued. “There are things beyond our control as a nation, but political self-sabotage is not one of them. People and business need stability to invest, whether that’s new machinery or eqipement or home improvements.”

GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index remained at -23 in June, suggesting households remain cautious about the wider economy and major purchases.

Yet there are also tentative signs that the housing market is beginning to find its feet again.

According to the latest Lloyds House Price Index, UK house prices rose by 0.2% in June, the first monthly increase in four months, with annual growth edging up to 0.6%. Mortgage rates have eased slightly, helping to restore some confidence among buyers, even if affordability remains stretched.

“Despite everything that’s bubbling away in the background, there are reasons to be quietly optimistic,” Mike said.

“The resumption of hostilities between Iran and the USA show that we’re certainly not out of the woods, but neither are we where we were a few months ago.

“House prices have started moving in the right direction again, inflation is nowhere near where it was two years ago and people are beginning to adapt to this new economic environment.

“What I don’t think anyone should expect is a smooth ride for the rest of the year. Volatility is likely to remain with us and businesses need to plan accordingly.”

The latest Construction Products Association forecast supports that view. Private housing output is forecast to fall by 7% during 2026, with housing starts down 10% and completions falling by 6%, before a gradual recovery begins during 2027. The wider construction market is expected to remain subdued as higher financing costs and cautious investment decisions continue to affect demand.

Mike continued:

“We spend a lot of time talking about oil prices, inflation and interest rates, but the reality is that none of us can influence any of those things.

“What we can influence is how efficiently we run our businesses. The companies that know exactly where every quotation sits, understand their margins, keep administration under control and communicate well with customers will always outperform those that don’t, regardless of what’s happening in the wider economy.”

This has been a key element of Sternfenster’s own strategy. Alongside continued investment in manufacturing capacity, training and customer service, it’s developed a suite of digital tools designed to help installers work more efficiently and protect profitability.

EasyAdmin+ allows installers to produce professional quotations, manage leads, monitor profitability and oversee projects from quotation through to completion. SF+ provides real-time visibility of production schedules, live order status and deliveries, allowing installation companies to plan labour more effectively and keep customers informed throughout the process.

EasySales, meanwhile, helps installers present products more professionally and create a more engaging buying experience for homeowners.

“Digital systems aren’t about replacing people,” Mike explained. “They’re about removing unnecessary administration so businesses can spend more time looking after customers.

“If you can produce quotations quicker, avoid costly mistakes, manage your margins more effectively and reduce unnecessary phone calls chasing deliveries, you’re immediately running a more efficient business.

“Our approach is people powered, digitally driven.”

That same approach extends into manufacturing. Earlier this year Sternfenster achieved record Complete On Time In Full performance following continued investment in production, training and operational improvement. The result is greater certainty for installers, particularly when projects are being carefully programmed and labour costs remain under pressure.

Mike believes this combination of operational efficiency and strong partnerships will become increasingly important over the coming months as volatitliuy continues through to the end of the year.

“I don’t think the second half of this year will be easy,” he said.

“We’re likely to see continued movement in oil markets, continued uncertainty around global events and continued pressure on household finances.

“But as we’ve said throughout this series, difficult markets also create opportunities. Customers value communication more highly. They value reliability more highly. They value suppliers who genuinely help them run a better business. Those are things we can all influence.”

The CPA expects conditions to begin improving during 2027 as inflation eases, confidence gradually returns and construction activity begins to recover from today’s lower base.

“I, like many others, have been in this industry long enough to know that markets always move in cycles,” Mike continued.

“We’ve come through recessions, financial crises, Covid and periods of exceptionally high inflation.The businesses that emerge strongest aren’t necessarily the biggest or the cheapest. They’re the ones that continue investing while others stand still. They keep improving, keep looking after their customers and keep making sensible long-term decisions.

“I genuinely believe that we’re getting that right.”