Post-Brexit bounce?
Growth is expected in the bifold door market over the next three years, according to a new report, despite an increasingly complex market.
The Bi-fold Doors Market Report, UK 2020 to 2023 from AMA Research, suggests significant shifts in prices and sector reach, defined by a series of drivers.
These extend from a growing pressure on price-point in trade supply and potential challenges from other product areas, to consumer confidence post-Brexit and its impact on home improvement and new-build sectors.
Jane Tarver, senior research analyst AMA Research, said: “We saw market growth in bifolds slow last year in comparison to very positive growth between 2014 and 2018, something subdued by the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.
“We perhaps now have more clarity about the UK’s direction of travel, and we expect this to lead to sustained growth through to 2023, albeit at a slightly lower rate.”
At a headline level AMA is forecasting growth in the bifolding door market across sectors of 7% this year but it argues that this may slow to 5% by the end of the three-year period.
Nonetheless, this represents total market value of £113 million by 2023. Aluminium remains the most popular material type, with the majority of bifolding doors supplied, as expected, as replacements for older inline sliding products.
The report also identifies a number of key trends, which have potential to redraw the market.
These include the impact of lowered retail price points, which the authors of the study identify as having the potential to erode sales in some areas, while growing them in others.
“There are numerous factors that may impact growth in different sectors of the market, including a shift in pricing structure within the industry itself,” Jane said.
“Increased competition and lower price point, combined with growth in other products, is starting to exert an influence, particularly on higher end sales.
“Conversely, some of these same shifts may increase the reach of bifolding doors into other sectors.
“The picture is complex. The market is in a sense taking away with one hand but giving with the other. It’s about understanding which, because what is clear is that we’re going through a period of change.”
The authors of the report also point to external factors, which may impact on growth and the sectors of the market that will deliver it.
This includes the impact of the Brexit ‘hiatus’ accompanying lower levels of consumer confidence in 2019, which may lead to higher growth this year.
The report also provides an analysis of the impact of this on the housing market. This includes the drop in the number of house sales seen last year, something that it suggests has not been a complete negative for the industry as homeowners improve rather than move.
Drawing on forecasts for the housing market, the report also looks at prospects for new-build, and opportunities in commercial sectors.
“The real positive here is that the bifolding door market will continue to see growth through to 2023,” Jane said. “What we’d say, however, is your proposition and offer isn’t necessarily going to be right going forward simply because it’s worked in the past.
“There are a number of factors which mean that won’t be the case with some sectors of the market delivering fewer opportunities while the yield from others will increase substantially.”