Lockdown and Covid-19 to drive 22% fall in window and door market

Revised forecasts from AMA Research suggest Covid-19 and lockdown will deliver a 22% drop in the value of the UK window and door market this year.

AMA, however, said that while this would lead to short-term challenge and some consolidation, prospects for the medium and longer term were positive, with the worst now behind it and moderate but sustained growth forecast through to 2024.

The authors of the revised edition of the Door and Window Fabricators Market Report UK2020-2024 said: “As with many other construction products manufacturers and suppliers, the restrictions imposed in an attempt to contain the spread of the virus have led to major disruptions to many businesses.”

They added, however, that with recovery forecast from Q4 this year, “growth is forecast in all sectors with a gradual build up over the subsequent four-year period to 2024 when some sectors will have fully recovered”.

While AMA forecasts a V-shaped recovery, it warned that many of the underlying issues that impacted the industry pre-lockdown remain. This includes significant over-capacity, particularly in PVCU extrusion and fabrication.

It also said that recovery will be faster in some areas of the industry than others, with significantly differing fortunes for residential, housebuilding and commercial sectors.

Jane Tarver, senior research analyst at AMA Research, said: “There is a lot that still hangs in the balance. A second wave or localised lockdowns still have the potential to exert a major impact on the industry’s fortunes.

“With April and May now behind us, and the relaxation of lockdown controls in the middle of June, we now appear to be entering a period of recovery.

“While we remain cautious, and while further industry consolidation should be expected, we can be optimistic about the medium and longer term, through to the end of the forecast period in 2024.”

AMA pointed to the highly competitive nature of the residential window market and said the fortunes of those who operate within it will vary according to product offer and material type.

“Ultimately, the industry is mature and, in the longer term, heavily dependent on replacement demand in the residential sector,” Jane said. “That in return is reliant on consumer confidence.

“Covid-19 has come with significant economic cost. The continuing challenge for companies – and the longer term one – is to adapt to the trends that were defining the window and door industry pre-lockdown.”