Can analysis of Google search give us market insight into things to come? We report.

A little time spent on Google can be enlightening. Google tracks interest in search terms over time. If you’re planning your next blog or new website copy, it gives you a steer as to where you should be going and what you should be including in your content, by giving search terms a score of anywhere between zero to 100.

These scores have no quantitative meaning, a score of 70 on a particular day doesn’t mean that only 70 people searched for a term, it might be 100,000 or 100million, Google is simply tracking the popularity of a search term over a defined period.

It provides a record of public consciousness, what we were collectively thinking or concerned about at a particular moment in time.

So, what’s happening now? Well, as a starting point, Ukraine. Since 2004, it barely registered in UK searches. At the end of February, as Russian troops crossed the border, it hit the 100 mark.

As UK consumer confidence took a hit, this had a direct impact on searches for windows and doors, with the term ‘replacement windows’ reaching one of its lowest returns in 90-days, at only 16 in the days that followed.

This dropped further to only eight in mid-April, as more negative stories about the war and inflation fed into the news agenda.

“You can see what happened to consumer confidence,” says Mark Haley, managing director, HWL Windows. “Consumer confidence fell off a cliff-edge in April. You could see it was coming from what people were searching for on Google. Big ticket and discretionary items fell away, as inflation and concern about the conflict in Ukraine began to bite.

“The market this year is going to be very different, there’s no doubt about that, but there are still some things which I believe will play out to our advantage.”

HWL took the decision to move out of volume manufacture to focus on higher margin and specialist products at the end of last year. This follows its pioneering development of a non-glass-bonded 90° jointed R9 window in 2017, replicating a traditional 90° mechanical joint on both sides of a welded sash using Timberweld.

It added the new Kömmerling flush casement to its offer at the beginning of this year, giving it a fourth PVC-U flush casement manufactured with a 90° traditional timber-type joint.

“We don’t see growth coming from the mass market this year. It’s about premium products and the people who can afford to buy them – those who are financially secure despite what is happening in the broader market,” Mark continues.

“It’s important to remember that despite the inflationary pressures that we’re seeing, there are still opportunities, and some of those pressures have the potential to feed into new business.”

Millions of UK households were hit by an average £700 a year increase in energy costs at the beginning of April as the energy price cap was raised. Representing a 54% increase, this pushed average household energy bills to £1,971. This could hit £2,600 by October if predictions of further increases come to bear.

This may not, however, be entirely bad news for the window and door industry this year if Google searches convert into new business in the same way as they have for the last two-years.

Taken from 2004, when Google first began to publish its results, searches on ‘energy efficient windows’ followed a relatively established pattern. Hitting peaks in March, coinciding with higher winter fuel bills, then peaking again in late summer, as homeowners look towards autumn.

Covid disrupted this pattern, pushing searches for home energy efficiency up to an all-time high in August 2020 with a Google Trends score of 100. Track the same search over the last 12-months and there is a clear correlation with increased Google search activity and high levels of retail demand.

This includes higher levels of searches in May, October and November, ranging from an 80-90 score out of a potential maximum of 100.

“This is something that we know converted into increased activity in the window and door market in summer and autumn last year,” continues Mark.

“If you look at what’s happened this year, we saw peaks in February, which is normally about the coldest month of the year with a score of 99, then 100 in mid-March at the same time as the energy crisis started to build.

This includes a strong correlation with what was being said on social media at the time, as people reacted to notification of price rises from energy companies.

Warmer weather over the Easter holidays saw interest fall away, but interest started to build again from the end of April.”

For the HWL boss, this is a key selling point, as the Kömmerling flush has an ultra-energy-efficient six-chamber system. This means that it comfortably achieves a u-value of 1.2 W/m²K – without having to go to a triple-glazed unit.

It also means that the Kömmerling flush meets new requirements under Part L for newbuild, without needing to go to triple-glazed units.

And it isn’t only energy efficient windows that this trend analysis applies to. Search for ‘bi-fold doors’, and since 2004, there is a clearly defined upward trajectory, again peaking in spring 2021. Since the start of this year, the trend has been more volatile, falling away with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, down to 61 but climbing to 83 at the end of April.

“We’ve seen increased demand for our Sheerline bi-fold throughout April and for me that’s down to a couple of things. There is a seasonal element to demand, and because of what it can do thermally, plus the colours on offer, we have increased market penetration at a time when energy efficiency is more important,” Mark says.

“What we can also see is even though consumer confidence is comparatively low, people are over the initial shock of conflict and still prepared to invest in home improvements, particularly where they can see a value-add, for example a better level of energy efficiency.

“That’s where I believe we are going to be for the rest of this year. It’s not going to be the gravy-train it was in 2020 and 2021, but homeowner appetite for improvements is still strong, which we can see in Google searches, and that will translate into opportunities if you’re offering the right products.”