Growth forecast for commercial and new build
As we hit the halfway mark for 2025, feedback from various industry sources is presenting a mixed forecast for the remainder of the year.
For the retail sector, a number of factors have contributed to what is widely regarded as a flat market. These include the impact of global events and domestic interest and inflation rates on borrowing costs.
This view is supported by the most recent data from Business Pilot, which reveals a downward trend in average lead volumes from April to May of 5.2%, a slight dip in sales volume (1.6%) and a similar decrease in average order values (down 2.6%).
On a more positive note, Business Pilot’s senior analyst, Neil Cooper-Smith points to a rise in conversion rates, perhaps signifying an increase in confidence from homeowners who are ready to move on with projects, while data from Tommy Trinder shows a rise in order values, specifically for premium installations featuring timber, aluminium and ‘feature rich’ PVC-U projects.
For the commercial and new build markets, however, the mood is more upbeat. Both sectors are reported to be ‘hotting up’ with significant volume anticipated towards the end of ’25 and into 2026.
This outlook is mirrored in a comment from Cornwall Group chairman, Mark Mitchell, who says that new construction orders are already rising – although he is also quick to point out that any ‘sharp upswing in demand’ in Q3 2025 may be tempered by supply issues from European float line shutdowns, an issue that will underline the importance of partnering with suppliers who have invested in delivering in long term stability for customers.